The march of progress is relentless, but it's not always obvious where it's heading. As we peer into the future, trying to discern the shape of things to come, one trend emerges with startling clarity: in the long run, everything tends towards the cost of energy.
This isn't just about electricity bills or gas prices. It's a fundamental principle that underpins the entire trajectory of human civilization and, indeed, life itself.
Consider the work of physicist Jeremy England. His theory, eloquently captured in the phrase "Every life is on fire," posits that life is an inevitable consequence of the laws of thermodynamics. Living systems, in essence, are highly efficient engines for dissipating energy and increasing entropy. We're not just consuming energy; we're optimizing its use in ever more complex and sophisticated ways.
Now, let's zoom out to the scale of human civilization. The e/acc movement - effective accelerationism - argues for rapid technological progress as the key to solving humanity's greatest challenges. But what does this acceleration fundamentally require? Energy, and lots of it.
Take artificial intelligence, the poster child of our technological zeitgeist. As AI systems grow more powerful and ubiquitous, their energy demands are skyrocketing. Training a single large language model can consume as much electricity as a small town does in a year. And we're just getting started. This insatiable appetite for energy isn't a bug; it's a feature. It's the price we pay for computational power that can revolutionize industries, solve complex problems, and potentially create artificial general intelligence. The question isn't whether we'll pay this price, but how we'll manage it.
In this light, the cost of energy becomes the ultimate constraining factor on our progress. It's not just about having enough oil, gas, or uranium. It's about our ability to harness energy in ever more efficient and abundant ways. Solar, fusion, antimatter - the form is less important than the fundamental challenge of extracting more usable energy from our environment.
This principle extends far beyond AI. Look at any industry, any human endeavor, and you'll see the same pattern. Agriculture? It's about converting solar energy into calories as efficiently as possible. Transportation? Moving mass with minimal energy input. Even the digital economy, seemingly ethereal, is grounded in the very physical reality of power-hungry data centers.
The implications are profound. In a world where everything tends towards the cost of energy, the nations and companies that can produce and harness energy most efficiently will have an insurmountable advantage. Energy isn't just another commodity; it's the fundamental currency of progress.
This lens also offers a new perspective on sustainability. It's not just about preserving the environment for its own sake, but about ensuring we have the energy resources to fuel our continued advancement. Waste isn't just harmful; it's an existential threat to our long-term progress.
So where does this leave us? With a clear imperative: to relentlessly focus on energy innovation. We need breakthroughs in energy production, storage, and efficiency that are as revolutionary as the microchip was to computing. We need to rethink our systems and societies around the central importance of energy.
The good news is that this challenge aligns perfectly with the ethos of effective accelerationism. By pushing the boundaries of what's possible in energy technology, we're not just solving a resource problem - we're unlocking new realms of possibility for human achievement.
In the end, our ability to progress, to solve global challenges, to expand beyond our planetary cradle, all come down to our mastery of energy. It's the ultimate resource, the fundamental driver of everything we do and aspire to do.
So the next time you hear about a breakthrough in fusion research, a new type of battery, or a more efficient solar cell, pay attention. You're not just seeing a technological advance; you're witnessing the next step in humanity's grand journey. Because in the long run, everything - our economies, our societies, our very future - tends towards the cost of energy.